微信公众号影响力指数建构与量化评估

作为被广泛使用的社交媒体，微信已经成为热点事件和网络舆情的重要策源地，科学准确评估微信公众号的影响力对于明晰微信信息传播特点，深入挖掘微信传播潜力，进一步规范和指导微信平台的传播行为具有较大的理论和实践意义。在对既有关于微信公众号影响力研究进行梳理和评价的基础上，基于传播效果测量的设计，坚持以受众为中心、由浅入深多层次考察准则，运用德尔菲法和层次分析法建构一套微信公众号影响力指标体系。该指标体系由4个一级指标和9个二级指标构成，并运用线性合成法合成微信公众号影响力指数。     

工业劳动力流动、资本创造与经济地理空间均衡

资本创造模型（CC模型）忽视了要素流动对产业空间分布的影响。而发展的新的资本创造模型则认为资本集聚的过程必然伴随着工业劳动力的流动过程。另外，是资本的实际收益而不是名义收益决定资本是否创造。研究结果表明，随着贸易自由度、工业品支出份额及资本贴现率的变大，替代弹性及资本折旧率的变小，将降低对称结构的稳定性，而提高中心-外围结构的稳定性；经济地理空间的产业均衡是集聚力和分散力相互作用的结果。当企业生产工业品的规模报酬递增程度足够显著，或者工业品支出份额很高时，市场拥挤效应将彻底消失，并转化成为促进产业集聚的动力；突破点与持续点的大小比较可以形成不同的关系，这意味着随着贸易自由度的变化，本文发展的资本创造模型可以体现出多样化的产业空间动态演化行为。     

局部平稳部分线性面板数据模型的统计推断

部分线性模型是一类非常重要的半参数回归模型,由于它既含有参数部分又含有非参数部分,与常规的线性模型相比具有更强的适应性和解释能力。文章研究带有局部平稳协变量的固定效应部分线性面板数据模型的统计推断。首先提出一个两阶段估计方法得到模型中未知参数和非参数函数的估计,并证明估计量的渐近性质,然后运用不变原理构造出非参数函数的一致置信带,最后通过数值模拟研究和实例分析验证了该方法的有效性。     

Midwives’ views of caseload midwifery – comparing the caseload and non-caseload midwives’ opinions. A cross-sectional survey of Australian midwives.

BackgroundMidwife-led continuity of care has substantial benefits for women and infants and positive outcomes for midwives, yet access to these models remains limited. Caseload midwifery is associated with professional satisfaction and lower burnout, but also impacts on work-life boundaries. Few studies have explored caseload midwifery from the perspective of midwives working in caseload models compared to those in standard care models, understanding this is critical to sustainability and upscaling.AimTo compare views of caseload midwifery – those working in caseload models and those in standard care models in hospitals with and without caseload.MethodsA national cross-sectional survey of midwives working in Australian public hospitals providing birthing services.FindingsResponses were received from 542/3850 (14%) midwives from 111 hospitals – 20% worked in caseload, 39% worked in hospitals with caseload but did not work in the model, and 41% worked in hospitals without caseload. Regardless of exposure, midwives expressed support for caseload models, and for increased access to all women regardless of risk. Fifty percent of midwives not working in caseload expressed willingness to work in the model in the future. Flexibility, autonomy and building relationships were positive influencing factors, with on-call work the most common reason midwives did not want to work in caseload.ConclusionsThere was widespread support for and willingness to work in caseload. The findings suggest that the workforce could support increasing access to caseload models at existing and new caseload sites. Exposure to the model provides insight into understanding how the model works, which can positively or negatively influence midwives’ views.     

基于优先权拍卖的产能分配机制研究

本文考虑一个供应商和两个独立零售商构成的供应链系统。当供应商的产能受到约束时，零售商可能会竞争有限的产能。本文提出将“优先分配权”作为一个有价值的标的物进行拍卖，按照出价高低确定优先分配顺序。本文证明了优先权拍卖机制属于共同价值模型，并提出了两类拍卖机制：事先拍卖和事后拍卖。本文证明两类优先权拍卖机制均会促使零售商提交真实的需求作为订单量，并且满足收益等价定理。而就供应商期望利润而言，事后优先权拍卖机制要高于事先优先权拍卖机制。     

Agent‐Based Recovery Model for Seismic Resilience Evaluation of Electrified Communities

In this article, an agent‐based framework to quantify the seismic resilience of an electric power supply system (EPSS) and the community it serves is presented. Within the framework, the loss and restoration of the EPSS power generation and delivery capacity and of the power demand from the served community are used to assess the electric power deficit during the damage absorption and recovery processes. Damage to the components of the EPSS and of the community‐built environment is evaluated using the seismic fragility functions. The restoration of the community electric power demand is evaluated using the seismic recovery functions. However, the postearthquake EPSS recovery process is modeled using an agent‐based model with two agents, the EPSS Operator and the Community Administrator. The resilience of the EPSS–community system is quantified using direct, EPSS‐related, societal, and community‐related indicators. Parametric studies are carried out to quantify the influence of different seismic hazard scenarios, agent characteristics, and power dispatch strategies on the EPSS–community seismic resilience. The use of the agent‐based modeling framework enabled a rational formulation of the postearthquake recovery phase and highlighted the interaction between the EPSS and the community in the recovery process not quantified in resilience models developed to date. Furthermore, it shows that the resilience of different community sectors can be enhanced by different power dispatch strategies. The proposed agent‐based EPSS–community system resilience quantification framework can be used to develop better community and infrastructure system risk governance policies.     

Constructing ‘disability’ in Myanmar: teachers,community stakeholders,and the complexity of disability models

This article explores Myanmar teachers’ and community stakeholders’ constructions of disability. We examine how various religious perspectives – particularly Buddhism – inform and shape understandings of impairment and how these beliefs intersect with a strongly medicalised construction of disability. However, in our discussion and exploration of the responses, we also found that the notion of two primary disability ‘models’ – namely the medical model and the social model – lack nuance, complexity, and socio-cultural consideration. Through examining teachers’ and community members’ perspectives of disability in Myanmar, we highlight the importance of socio-cultural variance in understanding local constructions of disability.     

Media Disaster Reporting Effects on Public Risk Perception and Response to Escalating Tornado Warnings: A Natural Experiment

Previous research has evaluated public risk perception and response to a natural hazards in various settings; however, most of these studies were conducted either with a single scenario or after a natural disaster struck. To better understand the dynamic relationships among affect, risk perception, and behavioral intentions related to natural disasters, the current study implements a simulation scenario with escalating weather intensity, and includes a natural experiment allowing comparison of public response before and after a severe tornado event with extensive coverage by the national media. The current study also manipulated the display of warning information, and investigated whether the warning system display format influences public response. Results indicate that (1) affect, risk perception, and behavioral intention escalated as weather conditions deteriorated, (2) responses at previous stages predicted responses at subsequent stages of storm progression, and (3) negative affect predicted risk perception. Moreover, risk perception and behavioral intention were heightened after exposure to the media coverage of an actual tornado disaster. However, the display format manipulation did not influence behavioral responses. The current study provides insight regarding public perception of predisaster warnings and the influence of exposure to media coverage of an actual disaster event.     

Objective and subjective conditions for the continuity of the Peruvian extractive development model

ABSTRACT

The Peruvian economy depends for its growth on the export of its mineral resources. The core of the current economic development model is the export of the country's commodities and a free and (relatively) unregulated functioning of the markets. We argue that the continuity of the country's extractive development model is the consequence of the interplay between the objective and subjective conditions of Peruvian capitalist development. The analysis of the objective conditions is focused on the role of the country in the international division of labour, the relation between this role and the country’s economic and business structure, and the functionality of the extractive development model for the Peruvian State. In the case of the subjective conditions, the strength of the political Left, the labour movement and the social movements against mining capital are analyzed